‘Tis the season for retailers. As Thanksgiving and Black Friday approaches, brick-and-mortar stores are battening down the hatches, hoping for an extravaganza that will make or break their year.
But leading into the holidays, they haven’t heard great news. Consulting firm Deloitte estimates that retail sales will increase 3.5 percent to 4 percent this year, which is a slower rate of growth than the 5.2 percent increase in 2014. Plus, Deloitte expects to see online sales jump as much as 9 percent this holiday season, and that will largely benefit the top competitor of big-box stores, Amazon.com (ticker: AMZN).
While most retailers have invested in building their online marketplace, they still don’t come close to the size and scope of Amazon. This has left a number of companies, including Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), Target Corp. (TGT) and Macy’s (M), trying to grow their online distributions while still improving in-store sales. That’s why retailers are changing tactics around how to draw in customers and encourage a big Black Friday boost.
But will it be enough to salvage 2015? And are these big-box retailers good buys for investors looking for some extra holiday cheer?
Target’s slow recovery. Target has finally begun to bounce back after some poor decisions. It tried to expand in Canada quickly by buying struggling retailer Zellers, but that turned into a debacle. After sales never caught on, Target slashed prices to draw customers in, but only created a “bad reputation,” says Morningstar analyst Ken Perkins. “It was a big drag on profits for the last several years.”
In April, Target closed its last 133 stores in Canada and refocused its attention on its U.S. operations. It invested heavily in building its online presence, which has begun to improve the company’s bottom line. In fact, Target announced on Tuesday that it was increasing its yearly earnings estimate for TGT stock, as sales improved faster than expected.
In order to get people in the stores on Black Friday, though, Target will start sales well before the turkey is in the oven. Beginning Nov. 22 and running through the end of the month, the Minneapolis-based company will offer deals for electronics, toys and kitchenware. It also extended hours, with plans to open at 6 p.m. Thanksgiving Day to get a jump on Black Friday sales.
Perkins expects the company to continue growing same-store sales at a 1.5 percent rate, but he values Target at $72 a share for the long haul. That’s about where it’s trading at now, which doesn’t make for a great entry point for a new investor.
Macy’s struggles continue. Like Target, Macy’s will offer a number of deals and open at 6 p.m. on Thanksgiving. But unlike Target, Macy’s struggles will not be relieved by a strong December. Since July, M stock has dropped 48 percent. CEO Terry Lundgren says sales declined in the third quarter by 5.2 percent and same-store sales for the year will also likely decline.
Macy’s faces what most retailers have already dealt with: Online sales have eaten into market share. But for years, Macy’s tackled this issue by buying other retailers and new in-store formats. Its focus on stores has left Macy’s with a number of unsold items. In response, Macy’s is creating a new brand called Macy’s Backstage, which will compete with T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, both owned by TJX Companies (TJX). Four pilot locations were opened this year in the New York City area.
However, it could take years before this effort shows much benefit.
Macy’s stock has fallen nearly 30 percent this year, so it may offer some upside if Macy’s Backstage and its efforts growing online sales have an impact. While Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Trussell rates M stock as a “hold,” he puts his target price 55 percent higher than the current position of Macy’s stock. There’s plenty of upside here.
Best Buy is back from the dead. It wasn’t too long ago when investors had Best Buy (BBY) on a short list of potential companies that would soon no longer exist. But under CEO Hubert Joly, it has made significant strides with online sales.
“It represents the survivor, if you will, of the consumer electronics segment,” says Oppenheimer analyst Brian Nagel.
Best Buy is recovering because it has cut costs. It has a goal of cutting $400 million in expenses by 2018 through reducing the number of stores. The cuts have allowed it to price products more competitively with Amazon, and it’s upping the ante this year by offering customers free shipping.
BBY stock is attractively priced with a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 on 2016 sales. And although third-quarter sales came in slightly lower than analysts expected this week, BBY stock fell by only 2 percent. Nagel gives Best Buy stock a price target of $45 per share.
Wal-Mart’s road ahead. In October, when Wal-Mart announced that its yearly sales could fall 6 to 12 percent next year, investors not only punished the stock, but realized the worst of their fears. CEO Douglas McMillon had raised worker wages to a minimum of $9 an hour in April and will increase that to $10 next year. This had eaten into expected profits, and the stock has fallen 30 percent for the year.
But this week, Wal-Mart reported a better-than-expected third quarter, which is a sign its strategy with employees is paying off. “It improves the service levels within stores,” Perkins says. “It can, over time, drive better productivity, better service and friendlier service.” Not to mention, this gives employees more money to potentially spend in the stores.
The other drag on profits this year is the investment into e-commerce. Now that Amazon is larger than Wal-Mart, the need to improve WMT’s online performance becomes that much more imperative. Next year, Wal-Mart says it will invest $1.2 to $1.5 billion to grow the infrastructure to better support its online sales, which increased by 10 percent in the third quarter.
The company is also changing strategies in its store. Instead of offering huge savings on products, while keeping a small number of toys in the stores, Wal-Mart will increase its inventory to make sure shoppers can buy what they want. It’s a new, friendlier Wal-Mart that Perkins sees as undervalued by more than 20 percent, giving WMT stock potential for the holiday season.
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Holiday Prospects for 4 Big-Box Retail Stocks originally appeared on usnews.com
