As high school seniors settle into another school year, they face a key moment in their academic careers — creating a short list of colleges. There are many criteria that can go into selecting possible schools, including academic strengths, cost and geography.

Previous posts have explored these factors, as well as how to determine if a school is a reach or a safe target.

Here, we take a closer look at how grades and test scores from the first quarter of your senior year can help you refine that list to a short set of high-quality schools.

[Determine how many college applications to send.]

1. Identify trends in your grades: Because college applications are typically due in early to late winter, your first-quarter grades may be the most recent evidence of your academic performance. Some students may find that their overall GPA is lower than they would like.

Many individuals have a difficult time adjusting to high school, and their grades may suffer during freshman and sophomore year as a result.

However, if you can demonstrate continued improvement year over year, you will have a strong case that you are a better student than your GPA suggests. In this case, you may be justified in pursuing those schools whose average GPAs are somewhat above your own.

Alternatively, if your grades have been strong throughout high school, it is very important to show continued excellence throughout your senior year. Senioritis is a common occurrence in the months prior to graduation, and this is especially the case for high achievers who are close to burning out. If your grades have remained steady, your GPA will be a reliable measure to use when selecting reach and safety schools — and not just academically.

One student I worked with, Ben, however, aspired to attend his father’s alma mater, the University of Arkansas. But Ben was a current resident of Texas, however, and out-of-state tuition made that prohibitively expensive unless he could qualify for the New Arkansan Non-Resident Tuition Award.

Ben could get reduced tuition with a 3.2 GPA. Better yet, each 0.2 increment would decrease his effective rate by thousands of dollars. Ben could get into his dream school with his 3.4 junior-year GPA, but his family would save money if he could pull it up to a 3.6.

[Find ways to narrow your college application list.]

2. Gauge improvement in standardized test scores: When students first start to think seriously about college, they may have no standardized test scores to work with, or they may only have their PSAT results. While fairly predictive, the PSAT is not the ACT or SAT.

And while some people will take the ACT or SAT as juniors, many more will take one or both of the exams in the fall of their senior year. In other words, the scores you earn this fall are the ones that truly count, whether this is your first time sitting for the test or your third.

Why is this? Although schools consider your highest scores, an upward trajectory in your results certainly cannot harm your chances. In some ways, the ability to work hard and to continually improve is more impressive than excelling without effort.

The students who learned that hard work leads to success are the students who will continue to persevere despite setbacks. Colleges and universities value evidence of steady improvement, and like your GPA, a positive trend in ACT or SAT test scores can broaden your options.

[Learn to leverage your individual data to find a college match.]

3. Prune your short list: Your GPA and test scores are far from the only relevant factors when it comes to gaining admission to a school. Absent a compelling narrative, however, your numbers do play a real role in defining the range of possibilities that you can select from.

For this reason, each school on your short list should be carefully weighed from a data perspective. Note, too, that even if you are convinced that you have found the perfect college fit, you should plan to apply at least two target schools, one reach school and one safety school. Four is a good number to aim for, but this number may vary slightly from individual to individual. If you feel more comfortable applying to five colleges, apply to five.

On the upper end of the spectrum, your first-quarter data can help you decide which of your potential reach schools are just too great a stretch. Applying for college requires a significant commitment in time and money. Resources spent with no return are resources that could have been used more profitably elsewhere, such as polishing your extracurricular resume or practicing for standardized tests.

For example, if the average GPA of an incoming freshman at a given reach school is 3.8, and your GPA barely clears a 3.0, that college or university may not be right for you. While each school will have different admissions criteria, your GPA should generally fall within 0.25 or 0.30 of its average.

Keep in mind that you should also be trimming schools from the low end of your short list. If your fall exam scores are markedly higher than your previous scores on the ACT or SAT, consider crossing some of the less restrictive colleges off your list.

The value of college is as much your opportunity for growth as the diploma you receive. If you choose the easy path at a school that does not challenge you, you may not improve academically or personally. As the saying goes, “If you’re the smartest person in the room, find a new room.”

More from U.S. News

Leverage Creative Summer Projects for College Applications

3 Holistic College Admissions Trends to Watch

Reflect on Your Academic Strengths, Weaknesses to Improve in 2015

Use Senior Year Fall Grades to Build a College Short List originally appeared on usnews.com