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How to Invest in Health Care in a Trump Presidency

Stocks of large pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies got a boost Wednesday as investors expressed relief for President-elect Donald Trump, who is expected to less aggressively pursue price controls for drug makers than Democrat Hillary Clinton.

However, publicly traded hospital companies took hits over investor concerns about the potential fate of the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, which brought them a new wave of customers.

Until Trump’s health care policies become clear, investors should take a wait-and-see approach before taking actions in the broad sector, investing experts say.

[See: 10 Ways to Invest in Pharmaceuticals With ETFs.]

Despite an overnight selloff in global markets as it became clear that Trump would win, sparking uncertainty, U.S. equities markets on moved higher after the election.

The impact on health care stocks is not just coming from the results of the presidential election, says Ernie Cecilia, chief investment officer with Bryn Mawr Trust.

Cecilia notes that Republicans maintained control of Congress, and a proposition in California that would have capped prices paid by most state-funded health insurance programs was defeated. He says if that measure had passed in California, similar measures would have found their way into other states.

Big pharmaceutical names are substantially higher on the strength of Trump’s victory. Pfizer (ticker: PFE) is up 10.2 percent this week, while Merck & Co. ( MRK) rallied 8.2 percent. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology exchange-traded fund ( IBB) rose nearly 11 percent.

Both Clinton and Trump talked about measures aimed at controlling high prices for drugs during a year that saw debate over Mylan’s ( MYL) price increases on EpiPen injectors for allergic reactions and Turing Pharmaceuticals announced a price hike on an HIV/AIDS drug. John Conlon chief equity strategist at People’s United Bank, says a Clinton presidency would have had a more severe impact on drug makers’ pricing power and revenue.

Health care stocks had been under pressure from worry about what would be the mechanism for price control, Conlon says.

Meanwhile, hospitals did not fare so well. HCA Holdings ( HCA) fell nearly 10 percent this week; Tenet Healthcare Corp. ( THC) was down nearly 27 percent and Community Health Systems ( CYH) shed 18 percent.

The selloff in hospitals comes amid fears that Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress will repeal at least parts of the Affordable Care Act and leave hospitals with fewer customers, says Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist with Brown Brothers Harriman.

Trump said repeatedly during the campaign he would seek to repeal Obamacare.

Investors were repositioning portfolios on Wednesday, Clemons says. But retail investors should wait and see, he says.

“In this kind of environment of heightened uncertainty, investors should take a long-term view,” Clemons says.

[See: 7 Pharma Stocks and the Prognosis for Profits.]

Clemons also notes that this surprise election result is similar to Britain’s recent decision to leave the European Union, which was also a stunner, in that there will be a period of unknowns.

“What we’re embarking on now is a process,” he says.

While political policies do matter for a company’s stock price, they matter less when it comes to underlying fundamentals, he says.

For example, the need for what large market capitalized pharmaceutical companies produce is not going away as the developed world ages, becomes more wealthy and tends to spend more on quality of life, Clemons says.

“There’s a natural increase in the underlying fundamental demand for health care,” he says.

Also, if a company is based in multiple locations, it may be able to weather political changes in one area, he says. Clemons compares short-term market rebalancing to breaking waves, but the longer-term fundamentals are like the tide.

Big pharma companies as well as smaller health care firms that can reduce prices based on efficiencies, rather than blunt political pricing pressure, will be more attractive under a Trump presidency, Clemons says.

Cecilia recommends letting the dust settle before investing in biotech and pharma, but he is positive on the sector over the longer term.

Shorter term catalysts for entry could include statements by Trump or his administration on pharmaceutical pricing, perhaps his Cabinet selections and who ends up holding important chairmanships in the Senate, Cecilia says.

[See: 9 Biotech Stock Funds to Buy.]

And Conlon is generally bullish on this portion of the health care sector. “It’s a very attractive area,” he says.

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How to Invest in Health Care in a Trump Presidency originally appeared on usnews.com

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