The odds of a picking perfect NCAA Tournament bracket are astronomical for a reason.
The number of unblemished entries in ESPN’s bracket challenge dropped to 195 after the completion of the first round, even with all the high-seeded favorites winning — and defending national champion Florida doing it by 59 points against Prairie View A&M, the second-largest victory margin in tournament history.
Translation: Over 99.999% of the 26 million-plus brackets entered have already been busted.
It was much the same over at the NCAA’s bracket challenge, where only 234 error-free entries remained.
Things were off to a slightly better start for those who gave ESPN’s women’s bracket challenge a shot. More than 675,000 perfect brackets remained after Friday’s games. Yet even with the higher seeds prevailing in every contest, well over 2 million entries had already fallen by the wayside.
Kalshi, a leader in prediction markets — in which users buy and trade shares based on potential event outcomes — is offering $1 billion (yes, that’s billion with a “b”) to anyone who predicts all 63 tournament games correctly, with a “consolation” prize of $1 million to the person who finishes with the top-scoring bracket.
The dream of becoming a billionaire was still alive for 83 people when Friday’s games tipped off.
The unpredictability of the tournament is one of the reasons the odds of going 63-0 are somewhere between one in 9.2 quintillion (for totally random guesses) or one in 120 billion (semi-educated ones).
It can also serve as a boon for bookmakers. A record $3.3 billion is expected to be wagered legally on the men’s tournament, according to the American Gaming Association.
While hard numbers on the amount of wagering done Thursday were unavailable, BetMGM spokesman John Ewing noted the tournament — which he said generates about as much action as the Super Bowl — is one of the uncommon instances where bettors put their money where their hearts are.
Though the top seeds have performed well in recent years, a lot of the action during the opening weekend goes elsewhere as fans try to cash in on potential Cinderellas.
“In March Madness, underdogs and upsets are such a popular theme and part of our culture that even though favorites have done so well lately, we still see underdogs taking a majority of bets in many games,” Ewing said.
That was certainly the case on Thursday night when 16th-seeded Siena opened a double-digit lead over top-seeded Duke. Wagers on the Saints pulling off the stunner spiked at halftime, meaning the house did pretty well when the Blue Devils rallied.
While Duke survived and advanced, its struggles did not go unnoticed. The Blue Devils opened the tournament as the betting favorites to win it all.
That wasn’t the case Friday morning, when Arizona replaced Duke as the top choice among futures bettors at BetMGM, followed by Michigan, with the Blue Devils falling to third.
Ewing said the dip was more about support for the Wildcats than it was a knock on Duke. He added there have been wagers of $50,000 on Arizona and Houston to win it all, with another bettor putting $100,000 on Purdue to reach the Final Four.
Betting interest in the women’s tournament continues to increase, which Ewing attributed to part of the ripple effect of Caitlin Clark bringing more eyes to the sport. The ability to watch every game has also helped.
“I think people are just realizing it’s just as much fun as the men’s tournament,” Ewing said.
___
AP March Madness bracket: https://apnews.com/hub/ncaa-mens-bracket and coverage: https://apnews.com/hub/march-madness
