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There are signs the U.S. could be headed for a Black recession, according to the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.
The nonprofit, which calls itself “America’s Black Think Tank,” released its “State of the Dream” report last month in honor of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday.
It looks back on 2025, the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term.
Joint Center Chief of Staff Monica Mitchell said the report found Black Americans are dealing with two things at once: regression and recession.
“Policy rollbacks that have removed protections and investments designed to support Black communities … is the regression, combined with economic indicators, particularly unemployment, that would qualify as recessionary if they were applied to the national economy,” she said.
Black unemployment increased from 6.2% in January of last year to 7.5% in December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Comparatively, in that final month of 2025, the unemployment rate for white people was 3.8%, for Asian Americans it was 3.6% and for Hispanics it was 4.9%.
The report also documented how volatile the unemployment rate was for young Black workers last year.
“It really actually illustrates the extreme instability that makes it nearly impossible for young workers and their families to be able to plan,” Mitchell said.
“We haven’t seen this level of unemployment writ large on the economy until we look back to 2021 during the height of the pandemic,” said Joint Center Senior Fellow Eric Morrissette.
The report estimated the Trump administration’s cuts to the federal workforce likely hit Black women particularly hard.
“The disproportionate job losses among Black women are particularly devastating to families with children, since Black women are often the primary or sole breadwinners in their households,” Mitchell said.
Also discussed in the report were low rates of homeownership among Black Americans, changing federal policies related to housing and the broader effects of both.
According to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data, the rate of homeownership is about 45% for Black Americans, compared to around 74% for white Americans.
“The things that we’re seeing in terms of administration policy set against housing is not just a matter of where people are laying their head; it’s also where they’re laying their hopes,” Morrissette said.
He said many homeowning entrepreneurs use their home equity to start a business, or if they use other capital to take that risk, they know they still have their home.
Morrissette said while changes made to the federal tax code will overwhelmingly benefit the wealthy, the introduction of Trump Accounts could be different.
“I do want people to avail themselves of whatever benefits that they can and not retreat from it just because it has the president’s name on it,” Morrissette said. “This is something that can help poor people who are born this year.”
The report also noted the Trump administration’s decision to end diversity, equity and inclusion and affirmative action requirements, as well as the removal of DEI-related federal data from websites.
“There needs to be an effort to resume collecting and publishing crucial data because without the data you can’t get the measurement, and without the measurement, you can’t prove where the need is,” Mitchell said.
The “State of the Dream” report, conducted in collaboration with several other groups, shows that work is underway, she said.
“Institutions in this moment are coming together to document what’s happening, and build the evidence base for change,” Mitchell said.