Virginia’s recently published enrollment data indicates that state schools will need about $1.2 billion over the next two years, more than was projected just weeks ago amid challenges in funding other key areas.
Enrollment data is the main factor in calculating Standards of Quality costs — the formula that determines how much state and localities must contribute — to ensure a high-quality education. The review process of school-related costs is conducted every two years.
The House and Senate estimated the baseline cost to cover schools was at least $844 million, about $356 million more compared to projections presented by the Virginia Department of Education at a work session last Wednesday.
Levi Goren, director of research and education policy with the Commonwealth Institute for Fiscal Analysis, said some of the bright spots potentially favoring K-12’s budget is Virginia’s “strong” economy, as reported by the governor’s office, and increased public interest in raising new revenue.
“We know that the current pie is not enough to meet the needs of our communities in the way that our families deserve, so we need to figure out how we can grow that pie and there’s a lot of interesting ideas out there in the tax base for doing that,” said Goren.
The institute co-leads a statewide coalition called Fund Our Schools, pushing for “fully and fairly” funding public education in the commonwealth.
While enrollment is projected to decline, presumably lowering overall funding needs, the education agency said the cost to fund Virginia’s schools is driven by several factors. The money will include 6% teacher pay raises legislators approved last year and a larger number of students being identified as needing extra support. Operating expenses including materials, supplies, and training account for 42% of the biennial rebenchmarking costs. Another factor is inflation.
Lawmakers also expect federal funds totaling $45 million to offset costs.
The agency also considered other updates, including the revised local composite index — which determines what each locality can pay for its respective school — revised sales tax projections, and revised Virginia Retirement System fringe benefit rates.
“I think, just understanding that rebenchmarking is the cost to maintain the status quo, … (it’s) not actually good enough for a lot of our students,” Goren said. “We need to also be having a conversation about the investments we can make to improve educational quality in parts of the commonwealth that don’t have the resources to do it on their own.”
VDOE said it was delayed in providing the reports to the state lawmakers because it had not received the daily student attendance from all 132 school divisions, which were due by Sept. 30.
Christina Berta, VDOE chief operations officer, said three school divisions — in Essex and Northumberland counties and the city of Norton — have not yet submitted their fiscal year 2025 annual school reports to the agency, which are “critical for the department’s work in providing complete information for policy and decision makers.”
However, she said the three missing reports do not have a direct impact on the agency’s benchmarking report. Berta said the agency is working with the schools to get their information included for lawmakers.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin will be considering the data ahead of presenting his proposed budget on Wednesday to the House and Senate money committees.
The board did not take any action on the item at its work session. Members will have another review of fall membership information at its Jan. 8 meeting before the start of the General Assembly session, beginning Jan. 14.