Business executives and D.C.-area leaders are bracing for more people to move out of the region when the new Trump administration arrives in January, and population growth from international workers that businesses often rely on to fill employment gaps may begin falling too.
International migration has historically helped support population growth in the D.C. area, said Terry Clower, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University.
“But during the first Trump administration, that ramped down a little bit,” Clower said.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, net international migration dropped by about 37%, to just above 25,000 in President-elect Donald Trump’s first year during his previous administration.
“His policies then were one of discouraging international migration,” Clower said during last week’s Capital Area Economic Forum.
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And policy proposals outlined by Trump could result in a similar migration dip.
“We have key sectors of our economy that need to thrive for us to do what we need to do to rebuild a competitive region,” Clower said. “We are going to be under real constraints if you start seeing less international migration, and I’m not necessarily talking about illegal immigration.”
Several regional industries, including the hospitality sector and construction trades, have about half their employment base as non-U.S. citizens, according to Clower’s data.
He said this could intensify a continued decade-long trend of the number of people leaving the D.C. region outnumbering new residents.
“This is not the 20 year olds that are leaving, this is our 30 and 40 year olds that are leaving,” he said. “Of course, we know that a lot of that has to do with housing prices, cost of living particularly for supporting families.”
According to Clower, the D.C. region is “losing the battle for talent.”