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Catalan Separatist Movement Extends to the Spanish Christmas Lottery

By U.S. News & World Report

Voters in Catalonia head to the polls to elect regional leaders today in a snap election called by Madrid two months after a separatist referendum for independence was quashed by Spain‘s national government.

In calls for more autonomy, Catalan separatists cite a regional economy that’s outperformed the Spanish national economy for years. There is confidence in regional leadership, and they’re not betting on help from Madrid.

In fact, they don’t seem to be betting on the national government at all.

El Gordo, or “the Fat One,” is an annual Christmas lottery run by the State Lotteries of Spain (SELAE), a public company created by the Spanish Ministry of Finance and Public Administration in 2010. It is the largest lottery in the world — winnings totaled $2.4 billion in 2016 — and it has been estimated that 75 percent of all Spaniards buy a ticket for the big drawing.

But local lottery associations in Catalonia are predicting significant declines in sales for the national Christmas lottery this year. The Provincial Lottery Association of Girona, a city about an hour north of Barcelona, predicts a 30 percent drop, according to a local news outlet.

El Gordo ticket sales in Catalonia increased last year, accounting for about 15 percent of all national sales. But the region hasn’t been able to sell nearly as many tickets this year. Instead, regional leaders are promoting a local lottery, La Grossa, which also translates to “the Fat One” in the regional Catalan dialect.

The winning numbers for El Gordo will be pulled on Friday, less than 24 hours after the polls close in Catalonia. La Grossa isn’t until December 31. But it’s possible that today’s vote in Catalonia will be influenced in part by lotteries of Christmases past.

Many studies have drawn connections between positive perceptions of the economy and voter support of incumbents, regardless of whether the the incumbent’s policies were directly involved.

A 2015 study published in the Journal of Political Economy found that lottery winners, particularly those who collect winnings from El Gordo, create those same positive associations between winning the lottery and incumbents in Spanish elections as they do with positive perceptions of the economy. In fact, incumbents received approximately one additional vote for every two winning lottery tickets. These positive associations can remain for up to two years after a lottery win, says Manuel Bagues, co-author of the report and associate professor of economics at Aalto University in Finland.

The last time a winning number was pulled in Catalonia was in Barcelona in 2013. Outside of Barcelona, wins in Catalonia date back decades.

Bagues says he cannot rule out an inverse negative effect that would cause non-winners to form unfavorable views of incumbents, or perhaps draw them away from a national lottery to a regional one. But, he says, he doubts that the effects of the lottery were large enough to affect the separatist movement in any way.

Global voting behavior is notoriously unpredictable. In their book “Democracy for Realists,” political scientists Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels examine the irrationality of democracy. They highlight the curious case of New Jersey in 1916 in which Woodrow Wilson lost his home state in the presidential election after a string of deadly shark attacks on the Jersey shore.

But Like Bagues, Luis Moreno Fernandez, a research professor at the Spanish National Research Council, would also not overstate any emotional or behavioral effect the lottery will have on today’s regional election.

“The long-standing question remains concerning which is the most prevalent, or compelling, of the elements in the aggregation of voters’ preferences,” he says. “No question about it. The main cleavage for [today’s] election is secessionism versus non-secessionism. In contrast with the 2016 elections , the motivations are now clear-cut.”

More from U.S. News

The Catalonian Paradox: When Autonomy Asks for More Autonomy

Across the World, Where Are the Voters?

Photos of Catalonia’s Independence Referendum

Catalan Separatist Movement Extends to the Spanish Christmas Lottery originally appeared on usnews.com

Don’t Settle for Student Loans to Pay for Online Education

By WTOP Staff
Online college programs are becoming a more popular choice for prospective students, with one study finding that more than 6 million students enrolled in at least one online course in fall 2015. The popularity of these courses can be attributed in part to their flexibility with working adults' schedules, students' ability to progress more quickly through online programs and, oftentimes, cheaper tuition. [See 10 low-cost online bachelor's programs for out-of-state students.]Online degrees can be beneficial to many college students, but some studies have shown online learners complete their programs at lower rates than students at traditional brick-and-mortar campuses. Individuals with student loans but no degree comprise two-thirds of defaulted borrowers. Though these numbers are not encouraging, just like for traditional programs, there are ways to reduce how much you'll need to borrow for an online program to ensure you won't become one of these statistics. Don't just settle on borrowing student loans to cover the whole cost of your program and living expenses. Instead, start thinking about how to cut costs and cover your balance in different ways, such as the following. -- Grants and scholarships: Even though you are taking an online course, you can still apply and receive grants and scholarships. But your first step should be to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly referred to as the FAFSA, which will allow you to receive a Pell Grant if your expected family contribution is low enough. The EFC criteria and award amounts are adjusted annually, but the 2017-2018 academic year awards range from $606 to $5,920, which could significantly lower the amount you borrow annually. Your next step is to apply for scholarships. You can start by checking online scholarship search engines, such as the Salt Scholarship Search, College Board's BigFuture and Peterson's. But don't forget to take advantage of local organizations and your school's financial aid office. Both may offer scholarships that you can't find with a national scholarship search. [Review these 10 sites to kick off your scholarship search.]For instance, organizations like the Elks Club, Knights of Columbus or the Rotary Club typically offer scholarships annually to local students. Just because you're going to school online doesn't mean you're ineligible. Visit your local library for scholarship listings, and ask around town. You might be surprised how many local organizations offer scholarships. While these scholarships typically aren't large, every little bit counts. Each dollar you receive in a scholarship is a dollar you don't have to borrow and pay interest on. -- Work-study: Another option for online students may be work-study awards. Not all students enrolled in online programs are eligible, but students at some schools -- including, for example, SUNY Empire State College and Liberty University -- are. Work-study awards are not given upfront like scholarships and grants. In most cases, they are an offer to earn up to the awarded amount if you secure an eligible work-study job. While there is a misconception that all work-study jobs must be on campus, students can work for off-campus, nonprofit or public employers as long as the work is in the public's interest. You may be able to work for a for-profit employer if the job is relevant to your course of study. No matter who the outside employer is, it will need to have an established agreement with your college for you to receive work-study funds. Remember, to be eligible for federal financial aid, you must be enrolled and pursuing a degree or certificate. If you're not working toward a credential, Pell Grants and work-study won't be option, but you may still be able to take advantage of private scholarships -- just be sure to read the eligibility criteria carefully. [Explore what to know about financial aid in online programs.]-- Pay as you go: One of the great benefits to enrolling online is the flexible schedule, which can allow you to complete your college coursework around your responsibilities. But prospective students often overlook using their part- or full-time job earnings as an option for paying for college. Almost 80 percent of college students in 2015 worked at least part time while attending classes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By budgeting and thinking strategically about your college costs, you can likely reduce your dependence on student loans by paying a portion out of pocket. Many -- but not all -- online programs are less expensive than traditional programs and often have shorter payment periods. Six, eight or 10 weeks are common course durations. Because of the frequency of payments in an online setting, you may be well-placed to pay as you go and possibly avoid borrowing altogether. Attending college online and avoiding student loans may be challenging, but if you are willing to put in the effort, you can limit the amount you need to borrow. More from U.S. News Q&A: Understanding Student Loan Discharge Eligibility Student Loan Refinancing Isn't Right for All Borrowers
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