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Will Apple Inc. (AAPL) Finally Put an End to iPhone 8 Speculation?

By U.S. News & World Report

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) shareholders don’t have much to complain about given that AAPL stock has gained nearly 30 percent in 2017.

But if you hear a grumble or two about the iPhone 8 as we head into Apple’s fiscal third-quarter earnings report — due out after Tuesday’s close — save your shushing. The 10th anniversary of the iPhone has, so far, not been the party Wall Street expected.

On one hand, excitement over the upcoming iPhone 8 — which is supposed to kick off a so-called “supercycle” of upgrades similar to those following 2014’s iPhone 6 launch — has helped drive much of shares’ year-to-date gains. However, Tim Cook also blamed the iPhone 8 for sluggish fiscal second-quarter purchases, and mounting concerns about a release delay have seemingly put a ceiling on AAPL stock for the past two months.

That’s why the focus of Apple’s third-quarter earnings report likely won’t be earnings. Here’s what investors really should be honed in on.

[See: 10 Skills the Best Investors Have.]

The headline numbers. For the record, analysts are looking for a modest 6 percent improvement to Apple’s third-quarter top line, to $44.89 billion. That’s expected to funnel down to a $1.57-per-share profit, up 10.6 percent year-over-year.

The biggest factor in those numbers, of course, will likely be what plagued Apple during its fiscal second quarter — how many would-be iPhone buyers are keeping their cracked, aging smartphones on life support because they want to wait for the iPhone 8 to blow their faces off.

The numbers that really matter. Every Wall Street analyst and Apple shareholder should be eyeballing Apple’s fiscal fourth-quarter guidance for a hint of what the iPhone 8 calendar looks like.

New iPhones typically are launched in September, which falls within Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter; thus, a low outlook could be Apple’s way of telegraphing an iPhone 8 delay.

Right now, a heap of analysts already are banking on that.

Cowen and Company, Pacific Crest and Morgan Stanley are among the analyst research outfits that have updated their expectations for the third and fourth quarters and/or fiscal 2018 based on supply checks and other reports that say the iPhone 8 will launch later than September.

Pacific Crest’s Andy Hargreaves, for instance, downgraded Apple in early June based on a likely delay, “shifting iPhone units out of FY17 into FY18” and decreasing its 2017 earnings estimates as a result. KGI Securities’ Ming-Chi Kuo said all the way back in April that the iPhone 8 launch may be pushed back to October or November.

In fact, so many analysts have loudly thrown themselves onto this bandwagon that investors may want to consider a couple other points of speculation.

[See: 9 Most-Loved Stocks in the Trump White House.]

The most rose-colored question is, “What if the iPhone 8 is on time?” Given the flood of reports, this outcome seems unlikely, but should Apple provide fourth-quarter guidance that implies a normal iPhone 8 launch, AAPL stock could crack like a whip. Shares limped their way out of last week, but they’re still just 5 percent off all-time highs of $156, and a rush of analysts readjusting their fourth-quarter estimates higher could send the stock through the ceiling and then some.

BMO Capital Markets’ Tim Long expressed a more nuanced version of that possibility last week, saying it expects two models (one standard, one premium) to be made available for pre-order “in September” — just in limited quantity for a couple of quarters while the company ramps up its production capacity.

Also worth asking? “How much would a weak fourth quarter outlook even matter?”

Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi hiked his price target on AAPL stock last week, from $160 to $170 — despite saying that a “big guide down” for the fourth quarter is possible. He only sees consumers becoming impatient and flocking to competitors should the iPhone 8 launch be delayed until November.

Moreover, even analysts convinced that the iPhone 8 will miss a September launch have mostly kicked the can down the road. Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty is now looking at boffo first and second quarters for 2018 and even believes other analysts, while optimistic, haven’t fully baked the “supercycle” into their models.

Apple longs should be encouraged by the mix of Wall Street’s still sky-high expectations for the iPhone 8 upgrade cycle and its wide resignation to the likelihood of an iPhone 8 delay. While any such announcement Tuesday still will spark widespread disappointment, the damage to AAPL stock should be limited.

More Earnings in Focus

Tesla (TSLA). July was supposed to belong to Tesla and the Model 3. However, an early-July second-quarter deliveries report yanked TSLA from all-time highs, and shares have been spending most of the month recovering. Perhaps August can start more smoothly. Tesla reports after Wednesday’s bell, and analysts expect sales to just more than double to $2.55 billion for the second quarter. However, those weak deliveries sent profit estimates from a 70-cent per-share loss three months ago to a current expectation for a $1.80 deficit. Baird’s Ben Kallo is especially pessimistic, calling for a $2.14 loss. That said, a beat — as well as any positive news on the Model 3 production front — could give the current rebound in TSLA stock additional life.

Under Armour (UA, UAA). Under Armour shares, off 60 percent since peaking in 2015, have been in a holding pattern since late January, when a disappointing fourth-quarter and weak guidance resulted in a quartering of the stock. Expectations for the second quarter aren’t great, with Wall Street looking for 7.6 percent revenue growth to $1.08 billion on Tuesday, as well as a 6-cent loss following the year-ago period’s 1-cent profit. UAA still might miss that low bar. Raymond James analysts recently warned about a higher percentage of discounted items over the past couple months, as well as Foot Locker’s lack of positive commentary about Under Armour products in May earnings call.

This Week’s Earnings Calendar

Monday. Pandora Media ( P), Sanofi SA ( SNY)

Tuesday. Allstate Corp. ( ALL), Apple, BP plc ( BP), Denny’s Corp. ( DENN), FireEye ( FEYE), Frontier Communications Corp. ( FTR), HCP ( HCP), Pfizer ( PFE), Phillips 66 ( PSX), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. ( RCL), Shopify ( SHOP), Sprint Corp. ( S), Under Armour

Wednesday. 3D Systems Corp. ( DDD), AutoNation ( AN), Cardinal Health ( CAH), Ferrari NV ( RACE), Fitbit ( FIT), Groupon ( GRPN), Humana ( HUM), Metlife ( MET), Mondelez International ( MDLZ), Southern Co. ( SO), Square ( SQ), Sturm Ruger & Co. ( RGR), Symantec Corp. ( SYMC), Tesla

Thursday. Clorox Co. ( CLX), Consolidated Edison ( ED), Dish Network Corp. ( DISH), Etsy ( ETSY), Gannett Co. ( GCI), GoPro ( GPRO), GrubHub ( GRUB), Kellogg Co. ( K) NRG Energy ( NRG), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals ( REGN), Shake Shack ( SHAK), Yelp ( YELP), Yum! Brands ( YUM)

[See: 7 of the Best Stocks to Buy for 2017.]

Friday. Cigna Corp. ( CI), Toyota Motor Corp. ( TM)

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Will Apple Inc. (AAPL) Finally Put an End to iPhone 8 Speculation? originally appeared on usnews.com

Don’t Settle for Student Loans to Pay for Online Education

By WTOP Staff
Online college programs are becoming a more popular choice for prospective students, with one study finding that more than 6 million students enrolled in at least one online course in fall 2015. The popularity of these courses can be attributed in part to their flexibility with working adults' schedules, students' ability to progress more quickly through online programs and, oftentimes, cheaper tuition. [See 10 low-cost online bachelor's programs for out-of-state students.]Online degrees can be beneficial to many college students, but some studies have shown online learners complete their programs at lower rates than students at traditional brick-and-mortar campuses. Individuals with student loans but no degree comprise two-thirds of defaulted borrowers. Though these numbers are not encouraging, just like for traditional programs, there are ways to reduce how much you'll need to borrow for an online program to ensure you won't become one of these statistics. Don't just settle on borrowing student loans to cover the whole cost of your program and living expenses. Instead, start thinking about how to cut costs and cover your balance in different ways, such as the following. -- Grants and scholarships: Even though you are taking an online course, you can still apply and receive grants and scholarships. But your first step should be to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly referred to as the FAFSA, which will allow you to receive a Pell Grant if your expected family contribution is low enough. The EFC criteria and award amounts are adjusted annually, but the 2017-2018 academic year awards range from $606 to $5,920, which could significantly lower the amount you borrow annually. Your next step is to apply for scholarships. You can start by checking online scholarship search engines, such as the Salt Scholarship Search, College Board's BigFuture and Peterson's. But don't forget to take advantage of local organizations and your school's financial aid office. Both may offer scholarships that you can't find with a national scholarship search. [Review these 10 sites to kick off your scholarship search.]For instance, organizations like the Elks Club, Knights of Columbus or the Rotary Club typically offer scholarships annually to local students. Just because you're going to school online doesn't mean you're ineligible. Visit your local library for scholarship listings, and ask around town. You might be surprised how many local organizations offer scholarships. While these scholarships typically aren't large, every little bit counts. Each dollar you receive in a scholarship is a dollar you don't have to borrow and pay interest on. -- Work-study: Another option for online students may be work-study awards. Not all students enrolled in online programs are eligible, but students at some schools -- including, for example, SUNY Empire State College and Liberty University -- are. Work-study awards are not given upfront like scholarships and grants. In most cases, they are an offer to earn up to the awarded amount if you secure an eligible work-study job. While there is a misconception that all work-study jobs must be on campus, students can work for off-campus, nonprofit or public employers as long as the work is in the public's interest. You may be able to work for a for-profit employer if the job is relevant to your course of study. No matter who the outside employer is, it will need to have an established agreement with your college for you to receive work-study funds. Remember, to be eligible for federal financial aid, you must be enrolled and pursuing a degree or certificate. If you're not working toward a credential, Pell Grants and work-study won't be option, but you may still be able to take advantage of private scholarships -- just be sure to read the eligibility criteria carefully. [Explore what to know about financial aid in online programs.]-- Pay as you go: One of the great benefits to enrolling online is the flexible schedule, which can allow you to complete your college coursework around your responsibilities. But prospective students often overlook using their part- or full-time job earnings as an option for paying for college. Almost 80 percent of college students in 2015 worked at least part time while attending classes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By budgeting and thinking strategically about your college costs, you can likely reduce your dependence on student loans by paying a portion out of pocket. Many -- but not all -- online programs are less expensive than traditional programs and often have shorter payment periods. Six, eight or 10 weeks are common course durations. Because of the frequency of payments in an online setting, you may be well-placed to pay as you go and possibly avoid borrowing altogether. Attending college online and avoiding student loans may be challenging, but if you are willing to put in the effort, you can limit the amount you need to borrow. More from U.S. News Q&A: Understanding Student Loan Discharge Eligibility Student Loan Refinancing Isn't Right for All Borrowers
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