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BAC Earnings Preview: Bank of America Corp. May Lay an Egg

Bank of America Corp. (ticker: BAC) is one of the most high-profile earnings reports out this week, and the big question heading into Tuesday morning’s report is, did its banking brethren already deliver a sour taste of what’s to come?

The performance of BAC stock in 2017 is one of the most confusing brands of disappointment investors can have. At returns of more than 9 percent so far in 2017, Bank of America is pacing well ahead of the market’s average annual returns. But BAC is slightly behind the Standard & Poor’s 500 index so far this year, and is doing so amid a political backdrop that was supposed to send it to the moon.

Specifically, President Donald Trump’s election victory was supposed to herald in a new era of bank deregulation that would allow big banks to take greater, more lucrative trading gambles and generally make it easier for financial stocks to churn out greater profits. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s rush of activity — three rate hikes in 12 months — was supposed to usher in higher interest rates that would push BAC’s net interest income higher.

[See: 8 Ways President Donald Trump Will Affect Wall Street.]

The headline numbers. Wall Street’s analysts see second-quarter improvements on the horizon for Bank of America. The consensus estimate for revenues is $21.8 billion, or 4.9 percent higher than last year. That should result in a similar hike in profits to 43 cents per share.

On the whole, those projections are better than what Wall Street was hoping for out of JPMorgan Chase & Co. ( JPM), Wells Fargo & Co. ( WFC) and Citigroup ( C) last week. But that’s little comfort given that despite earnings beats from all three, other factors — such as high expenses for WFC and a discouraging outlook from JPM — stopped all Big Four stocks in their tracks last Friday.

Unfortunately for anyone long BAC stock, these reports give some vital clues as to what we should expect to hear Tuesday.

Heed Wall Street’s omens. A couple weeks ago, Keefe, Bruyette and Woods’ Brian Kleinhanzl knocked down earnings estimates for a few Wall Street banks, including BAC, where he lowered his profit target from 48 cents per share to 44 cents. And his reasoning seemed prescient given what we found out from other large banks last week.

For instance, Kleinhanzl expressed concerns about “subdued” market volatility and thus lowered trading revenue forecasts. Fast-forward to last Friday’s JPMorgan earnings report, which did include a record quarterly profit, but also a 14 percent drop in overall market trading revenues. In its report, JPM said fixed-income trading dropped 19 percent “due to reduced flows driven by sustained low volatility and tighter credit spreads.” Citigroup also reported slow trading revenues.

And those interest rates? They’re still not helping anyone.

The rate on the 10-year Treasury has actually declined more than 5 percent so far in 2017 despite a hike in late December, and another two so far this year. JPMorgan in its report was forced to admit that its projections for net interest income were too optimistic, in part because interest rates hadn’t yet cooperated. That downgrade in outlook sent JPM stock down by a little less than 1 percent, but perhaps most telling is that BAC shares dropped 1.7 percent on the very same news.

[See: The 7 Best Bank Stocks to Buy for 2017.]

That’s in large part because the Bank of America story has been predicated on the same optimism. CEO Brian Moynihan has said that every 25-basis-point hike in interest rates could generate $600 million in additional net income every quarter. But it looks like Wall Street thinks BAC might suffer a readjustment similar to JPMorgan’s as hype hasn’t yet become reality.

In a nutshell, the bad news is that Bank of America is probably about to dole out some bad news.

Those looking for consolation should take heart in the fact that Wall Street has been pricing in its pessimism over the past couple weeks, including Friday’s small selloff, and that a disappointing result Tuesday shouldn’t trigger a stronger reaction. Also, longer-term, BAC stock should be supported by another $12 billion in stock repurchases over the next year, and investors eventually will collect an even healthier 11-cent-per-share dividend as the bank continues to push its payout in line with the rest of Wall Street’s mega-banks.

More Earnings in Focus

General Electric Co. (GE). General Electric will have an opportunity on Friday morning to turn around what has been a dreadful 2017; GE shares are off more than 15 percent this year. The bar certainly is set low enough, with earnings expected to shrink by more than half to 25 cents per share, and revenues projected to slide 13.4 percent to $29.02 billion.

But perhaps the most-watched metric will be operating cash flow, which turned negative last quarter. GE’s cash guidance for the next couple years has sparked worries about dividend coverage by free cash flow, and while a cut might not be in the cards, General Electric needs to improve on the cash front to convince investors that the company can produce meaningful payout growth. Also look for details about the company’s merger with oil services company Baker Hughes ( BHI).

T-Mobile US (TMUS). Analysts’ consensus expectations for T-Mobile’s second quarter are optimistic as is, with the pros estimating 6.4 percent top-line growth to $9.81 billion and a 56 percent pop to 39 cents per share in profits. Wells Fargo’s Jennifer Fritzsche is particularly optimistic about T-Mobile’s most recent quarter, saying, “We believe T-Mobile will again lead the industry in postpaid phone and total net add growth despite a competitive quarter.” She’s now looking for total second quarter postpaid net additions of 726,000 and net postpaid phone additions of 602,000.

This Week’s Earnings Calendar

Monday. J.B. Hunt Transport Services ( JBHT), Netflix ( NFLX), Select Comfort Corp. ( SCSS)

Tuesday. CSX Corp. ( CSX), Goldman Sachs Group ( GS), Harley-Davidson ( HOG), Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ), Lockheed Martin Corp. ( LMT), Novartis AG ( NVS), TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. ( AMTD), United Continental Holdings ( UAL)

Wednesday. Alcoa Corp. ( AA), American Express Co. ( AXP), M&T Bank Corp. ( MTB), Qualcomm ( QCOM), U.S. Bancorp ( USB), W.W. Grainger ( GWW)

Thursday. Abbott Laboratories ( ABT), Blackstone Group L.P. ( BX), eBay ( EBAY), Intuitive Surgical ( ISRG), Microsoft Corp. ( MSFT), Philip Morris International ( PM), Sherwin-Williams Co. ( SHW), Travelers Cos. ( TRV), Unilever NV ( UN), Union Pacific Corp. ( UNP), Visa ( V)

[See: 11 Ways to Buy Bank Stocks.]

Friday. Colgate-Palmolive Co. ( CL), Honeywell International ( HON), Regions Financial Corp. ( RF)

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BAC Earnings Preview: Bank of America Corp. May Lay an Egg originally appeared on usnews.com

Don’t Settle for Student Loans to Pay for Online Education

Online college programs are becoming a more popular choice for prospective students, with one study finding that more than 6 million students enrolled in at least one online course in fall 2015. The popularity of these courses can be attributed in part to their flexibility with working adults' schedules, students' ability to progress more quickly through online programs and, oftentimes, cheaper tuition. [See 10 low-cost online bachelor's programs for out-of-state students.]Online degrees can be beneficial to many college students, but some studies have shown online learners complete their programs at lower rates than students at traditional brick-and-mortar campuses. Individuals with student loans but no degree comprise two-thirds of defaulted borrowers. Though these numbers are not encouraging, just like for traditional programs, there are ways to reduce how much you'll need to borrow for an online program to ensure you won't become one of these statistics. Don't just settle on borrowing student loans to cover the whole cost of your program and living expenses. Instead, start thinking about how to cut costs and cover your balance in different ways, such as the following. -- Grants and scholarships: Even though you are taking an online course, you can still apply and receive grants and scholarships. But your first step should be to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly referred to as the FAFSA, which will allow you to receive a Pell Grant if your expected family contribution is low enough. The EFC criteria and award amounts are adjusted annually, but the 2017-2018 academic year awards range from $606 to $5,920, which could significantly lower the amount you borrow annually. Your next step is to apply for scholarships. You can start by checking online scholarship search engines, such as the Salt Scholarship Search, College Board's BigFuture and Peterson's. But don't forget to take advantage of local organizations and your school's financial aid office. Both may offer scholarships that you can't find with a national scholarship search. [Review these 10 sites to kick off your scholarship search.]For instance, organizations like the Elks Club, Knights of Columbus or the Rotary Club typically offer scholarships annually to local students. Just because you're going to school online doesn't mean you're ineligible. Visit your local library for scholarship listings, and ask around town. You might be surprised how many local organizations offer scholarships. While these scholarships typically aren't large, every little bit counts. Each dollar you receive in a scholarship is a dollar you don't have to borrow and pay interest on. -- Work-study: Another option for online students may be work-study awards. Not all students enrolled in online programs are eligible, but students at some schools -- including, for example, SUNY Empire State College and Liberty University -- are. Work-study awards are not given upfront like scholarships and grants. In most cases, they are an offer to earn up to the awarded amount if you secure an eligible work-study job. While there is a misconception that all work-study jobs must be on campus, students can work for off-campus, nonprofit or public employers as long as the work is in the public's interest. You may be able to work for a for-profit employer if the job is relevant to your course of study. No matter who the outside employer is, it will need to have an established agreement with your college for you to receive work-study funds. Remember, to be eligible for federal financial aid, you must be enrolled and pursuing a degree or certificate. If you're not working toward a credential, Pell Grants and work-study won't be option, but you may still be able to take advantage of private scholarships -- just be sure to read the eligibility criteria carefully. [Explore what to know about financial aid in online programs.]-- Pay as you go: One of the great benefits to enrolling online is the flexible schedule, which can allow you to complete your college coursework around your responsibilities. But prospective students often overlook using their part- or full-time job earnings as an option for paying for college. Almost 80 percent of college students in 2015 worked at least part time while attending classes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By budgeting and thinking strategically about your college costs, you can likely reduce your dependence on student loans by paying a portion out of pocket. Many -- but not all -- online programs are less expensive than traditional programs and often have shorter payment periods. Six, eight or 10 weeks are common course durations. Because of the frequency of payments in an online setting, you may be well-placed to pay as you go and possibly avoid borrowing altogether. Attending college online and avoiding student loans may be challenging, but if you are willing to put in the effort, you can limit the amount you need to borrow. More from U.S. News Q&A: Understanding Student Loan Discharge Eligibility Student Loan Refinancing Isn't Right for All Borrowers
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