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Value Investing Isn’t Dead, But You Need to Adapt

As stock prices continue their epic climb, value investing has lost some of its luster. A June report from Goldman Sachs even questioned whether value investing is dead, citing a 15 percent cumulative loss over the last decade — the longest losing streak for value investors since the Great Depression.

Don’t mothball this strategy yet, however.

“Value investing isn’t dead, but the universe of securities value investors can invest in profitably has shrunk,” says Tomer Cohen, founder of Five Roads Capital in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

The growth of passive investing has helped fuel the overvaluation of many large-cap companies, Cohen says. Still, value investors looking to generate higher portfolio returns can fine-tune their strategy in myriad ways.

Leverage rising rates. Bond investors may bemoan rising rates, but value investors have reason to embrace them.

Rising rates should result in slightly lower stock prices, says Sameer Samana, global quantitative and technical strategist for Wells Fargo Investment Institute in St. Louis. If so, the investing universe will expand for value investors.

[See: The 10 Best ETFs for Value Investors.]

The economy is the big question mark that may determine which way stock prices move. The current growth cycle has been sluggish. The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise the federal funds rate was designed to keep growth increasing at a sustainable pace, while staving off inflation.

Simon Hamilton, portfolio manager with The Wise Investor Group at Robert W. Baird in Reston, Virginia, says that when growth is scarce, investors flock to a handful of stocks that deliver higher earnings.

Value stocks, on the other hand, often fare well in periods of broad economic growth. Just after last year’s election, value stocks rallied as investors anticipated an uptick in growth.

“In a rising-rate environment, we would expect value to do better, as it did last year,” Hamilton says.

Investors, he adds, should remember that value and growth stocks move in cycles. If rising rates stimulate further economic growth, value stocks could take off.

“Value investors should be on the lookout for any sign of a correction as an opportunity to deploy capital,” says Michael Banks, founder of The Fortunate Investor, an investing and personal finance blog.

What goes up, must come down, Banks says. So if the market begins falling, value investors who go into buying mode may benefit.

Adjust your scope. When value stocks appear lackluster, investors may need to look beyond domestic stocks for good buys.

“Emerging markets are an opportunity for value investors since they’re distinctively cheap and have better economic and earnings trends than here in the U.S.,” Hamilton says.

Hamilton also thinks a case can be made for investing in European or Japanese markets. Over the last decade, the performance gap between the U.S. and certain foreign markets has narrowed, making them more attractive to investors.

[See: 10 Great Ways to Buy Emerging Markets.]

Value investors who look to emerging and foreign market alternatives should understand the risk that entails, however. Hamilton says that while share prices are currently better abroad, investors can lose big on overseas stocks if the market suffers a significant downturn.

The passive-investing frenzy may also be an unexpected source of investment opportunities because a multitude of undervalued companies eventually could be left behind in the rush toward passive funds. As the masses chase a few high-flying stocks, eagle-eyed value investors should be able to scoop up shares of strong, overlooked companies.

Play the long game. Rising stock prices can easily frustrate value investors, but that’s why they should think long term.

In our current environment, “stock prices are divorced from the fundamentals of revenue and profits,” says Nahum Daniels, a certified financial planner with Nahum Daniels in Stamford, Connecticut.

Under those conditions, investors often feel stymied trying to gauge value so they end up walking away. Although being price-conscious matters, keep valuations in perspective.

“Valuations are a poor timing tool, but they do provide a reasonable framework for future returns,” says Hamilton, who also suggests investors stay the course by setting realistic expectations and remaining disciplined during potentially difficult markets.

Also, value investors should remember that time is on their side — provided they’ve planned ahead.

“If you’re forced to sell when the market is down because you need cash, that’s when value investing doesn’t work,” says Kim Forrest, vice president and senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh. “Keep long-term money in the market and make sure you have cash on hand so you’re not forced to sell at a bad time.”

Thinking full cycle is another way to stay grounded.

“Markets go up and then they go down. Passive investors are going to get caught in a very punishing market when it enters a bear market cycle, or when prices start to go down,” Daniels says.

In that scenario, patience is a value investor’s most powerful weapon. Good things generally come to investors who wait, including a market that eventually swings back in their favor.

[See: 10 Tips for Keeping a Cool Head in a Market Meltdown.]

“In the full cycle, you want to be a value investor,” Daniels says. “Even if you miss some of the fireworks on the upside, you’re going to miss lots of pain on the downside.”

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Value Investing Isn’t Dead, But You Need to Adapt originally appeared on usnews.com

Don’t Settle for Student Loans to Pay for Online Education

Online college programs are becoming a more popular choice for prospective students, with one study finding that more than 6 million students enrolled in at least one online course in fall 2015. The popularity of these courses can be attributed in part to their flexibility with working adults' schedules, students' ability to progress more quickly through online programs and, oftentimes, cheaper tuition. [See 10 low-cost online bachelor's programs for out-of-state students.]Online degrees can be beneficial to many college students, but some studies have shown online learners complete their programs at lower rates than students at traditional brick-and-mortar campuses. Individuals with student loans but no degree comprise two-thirds of defaulted borrowers. Though these numbers are not encouraging, just like for traditional programs, there are ways to reduce how much you'll need to borrow for an online program to ensure you won't become one of these statistics. Don't just settle on borrowing student loans to cover the whole cost of your program and living expenses. Instead, start thinking about how to cut costs and cover your balance in different ways, such as the following. -- Grants and scholarships: Even though you are taking an online course, you can still apply and receive grants and scholarships. But your first step should be to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly referred to as the FAFSA, which will allow you to receive a Pell Grant if your expected family contribution is low enough. The EFC criteria and award amounts are adjusted annually, but the 2017-2018 academic year awards range from $606 to $5,920, which could significantly lower the amount you borrow annually. Your next step is to apply for scholarships. You can start by checking online scholarship search engines, such as the Salt Scholarship Search, College Board's BigFuture and Peterson's. But don't forget to take advantage of local organizations and your school's financial aid office. Both may offer scholarships that you can't find with a national scholarship search. [Review these 10 sites to kick off your scholarship search.]For instance, organizations like the Elks Club, Knights of Columbus or the Rotary Club typically offer scholarships annually to local students. Just because you're going to school online doesn't mean you're ineligible. Visit your local library for scholarship listings, and ask around town. You might be surprised how many local organizations offer scholarships. While these scholarships typically aren't large, every little bit counts. Each dollar you receive in a scholarship is a dollar you don't have to borrow and pay interest on. -- Work-study: Another option for online students may be work-study awards. Not all students enrolled in online programs are eligible, but students at some schools -- including, for example, SUNY Empire State College and Liberty University -- are. Work-study awards are not given upfront like scholarships and grants. In most cases, they are an offer to earn up to the awarded amount if you secure an eligible work-study job. While there is a misconception that all work-study jobs must be on campus, students can work for off-campus, nonprofit or public employers as long as the work is in the public's interest. You may be able to work for a for-profit employer if the job is relevant to your course of study. No matter who the outside employer is, it will need to have an established agreement with your college for you to receive work-study funds. Remember, to be eligible for federal financial aid, you must be enrolled and pursuing a degree or certificate. If you're not working toward a credential, Pell Grants and work-study won't be option, but you may still be able to take advantage of private scholarships -- just be sure to read the eligibility criteria carefully. [Explore what to know about financial aid in online programs.]-- Pay as you go: One of the great benefits to enrolling online is the flexible schedule, which can allow you to complete your college coursework around your responsibilities. But prospective students often overlook using their part- or full-time job earnings as an option for paying for college. Almost 80 percent of college students in 2015 worked at least part time while attending classes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By budgeting and thinking strategically about your college costs, you can likely reduce your dependence on student loans by paying a portion out of pocket. Many -- but not all -- online programs are less expensive than traditional programs and often have shorter payment periods. Six, eight or 10 weeks are common course durations. Because of the frequency of payments in an online setting, you may be well-placed to pay as you go and possibly avoid borrowing altogether. Attending college online and avoiding student loans may be challenging, but if you are willing to put in the effort, you can limit the amount you need to borrow. More from U.S. News Q&A: Understanding Student Loan Discharge Eligibility Student Loan Refinancing Isn't Right for All Borrowers
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