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Risk: A Fresh View of How We Should Define It

As the major indices continue to bounce around near all-time highs, many investors are beginning to talk again about risk and the impact that a sharp market drop could have on their portfolios.

After all, what if I invest today when the market is at the top and it drops? Shouldn’t the risk of that possibility keep me out of the markets until a safer entry point?

While this concern is certainly not new, it also seems to suggest a shortsighted and narrow view of risk. After all, if risk is simply defined as a drop in the markets after I am already invested, then that inevitably leads to an “all-in” or “all-out” market timing mentality that has proved elusive to even the most nimble and savvy investment professionals.

[See: The Best ETFs Retirees Can Buy.]

Further, if fear of a market drop is the narrow definition of risk, how is one to plan for a retirement of 20 to 30 years or even more? After all, history shows the markets are cyclical, so this means that market drops during a saver’s retirement are almost certain. Is that really risk, or is it a fact of life that should be incorporated into a comprehensive plan?

Young savers are often characterized as more risk tolerant due to their age, number of years until retirement, belief that their incomes will be rising as they progress in their careers, etc. Further, they have the eighth wonder of the world on their side, the power of compounding, which can help them earn even more savings on their savings than an investor with a shorter time horizon.

For these and other reasons, advisors often counsel younger savers to take on more risk during early savings years and invest regularly (i.e., dollar cost average). This practice helps the inevitable market swings become their allies and allows them to purchase more shares as prices drop and fewer shares as prices rise.

Such systematic investing helps remove the guesswork, emotion and timing from investing, and helps keep the saver committed to a plan no matter what the headlines say. As the investor ages and their personal situation changes (perhaps through marriage, illness, promotions, etc.), they can adjust their risk tolerance.

Accordingly, how should this investor define risk? Are they investing more money than their monthly expenses permit and thereby finding themselves going into high-interest debt to fund their investment savings? That would seem to be real risk — since the accumulation of high-interest debt can bring dramatic harm to one’s credit rating and savings ability.

[See: 8 Investing Tips for New College Grads.]

With these considerations, market risk isn’t necessarily the most significant factor.

The personal index. Our industry has done a disservice to savers by narrowly defining risk and outcomes by measuring both against the major indices. “Beating the market,” whether on the upside or downside, is the mantra for many, when in fact we believe we need to reframe the risk narrative to address how investors are really impacted. Will they have sufficient savings to retire on time? Do their investments generate enough cash flow to pay their bills and travel in retirement?

Far more than merely being ahead or behind the year-to-date performance of a market index, aren’t these really the ways most investors measure success? If so, does it really matter at any point in time whether an investor is beating the index? Each investor should ask: Is my financial plan helping me stay on track to achieve the specific goals inherent to my needs and wants? If I cannot do the things I planned because my financial plan didn’t anticipate gyrations in the economy and markets, why compare my returns to an arbitrary benchmark? My personal index is the only one I want to meet or exceed.

This brings us to the question of whether there is a more practical definition of risk. We would submit that perhaps the biggest risk to most investors is not having cash when you really need it. After all, the world isn’t simply made up of growth investors and income investors. We are all saving so that we have income when we need it most, whether now or in the future.

Achieving any market victory would feel both meaningless and empty if we could not pay rent, tuition, taxes or health care bills.

Creating a plan. A financial advisor can help to form a plan that is unique and particular to an investors’ needs, wants and dreams. Properly crafted, this plan can be thought of as a distinct personal index that incorporates the identified goals which investors have for their life.

Creating specific, objective-based buckets within the investment portfolio allows these plans to be funded when needed. Because investors come in all shapes and sizes, financial plans should be customized. Far more than a simple asset allocation pie chart derived from an investor questionnaire, each plan should incorporate the timing of needs as well as the relative importance of each goal.

[See: 8 Times When You Should Sell a Stock.]

Creating a personalized plan and index allows investors to take risk into their own hands, allowing future needs, wants and wishes to potentially become reality.

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Risk: A Fresh View of How We Should Define It originally appeared on usnews.com

Don’t Settle for Student Loans to Pay for Online Education

Online college programs are becoming a more popular choice for prospective students, with one study finding that more than 6 million students enrolled in at least one online course in fall 2015. The popularity of these courses can be attributed in part to their flexibility with working adults' schedules, students' ability to progress more quickly through online programs and, oftentimes, cheaper tuition. [See 10 low-cost online bachelor's programs for out-of-state students.]Online degrees can be beneficial to many college students, but some studies have shown online learners complete their programs at lower rates than students at traditional brick-and-mortar campuses. Individuals with student loans but no degree comprise two-thirds of defaulted borrowers. Though these numbers are not encouraging, just like for traditional programs, there are ways to reduce how much you'll need to borrow for an online program to ensure you won't become one of these statistics. Don't just settle on borrowing student loans to cover the whole cost of your program and living expenses. Instead, start thinking about how to cut costs and cover your balance in different ways, such as the following. -- Grants and scholarships: Even though you are taking an online course, you can still apply and receive grants and scholarships. But your first step should be to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly referred to as the FAFSA, which will allow you to receive a Pell Grant if your expected family contribution is low enough. The EFC criteria and award amounts are adjusted annually, but the 2017-2018 academic year awards range from $606 to $5,920, which could significantly lower the amount you borrow annually. Your next step is to apply for scholarships. You can start by checking online scholarship search engines, such as the Salt Scholarship Search, College Board's BigFuture and Peterson's. But don't forget to take advantage of local organizations and your school's financial aid office. Both may offer scholarships that you can't find with a national scholarship search. [Review these 10 sites to kick off your scholarship search.]For instance, organizations like the Elks Club, Knights of Columbus or the Rotary Club typically offer scholarships annually to local students. Just because you're going to school online doesn't mean you're ineligible. Visit your local library for scholarship listings, and ask around town. You might be surprised how many local organizations offer scholarships. While these scholarships typically aren't large, every little bit counts. Each dollar you receive in a scholarship is a dollar you don't have to borrow and pay interest on. -- Work-study: Another option for online students may be work-study awards. Not all students enrolled in online programs are eligible, but students at some schools -- including, for example, SUNY Empire State College and Liberty University -- are. Work-study awards are not given upfront like scholarships and grants. In most cases, they are an offer to earn up to the awarded amount if you secure an eligible work-study job. While there is a misconception that all work-study jobs must be on campus, students can work for off-campus, nonprofit or public employers as long as the work is in the public's interest. You may be able to work for a for-profit employer if the job is relevant to your course of study. No matter who the outside employer is, it will need to have an established agreement with your college for you to receive work-study funds. Remember, to be eligible for federal financial aid, you must be enrolled and pursuing a degree or certificate. If you're not working toward a credential, Pell Grants and work-study won't be option, but you may still be able to take advantage of private scholarships -- just be sure to read the eligibility criteria carefully. [Explore what to know about financial aid in online programs.]-- Pay as you go: One of the great benefits to enrolling online is the flexible schedule, which can allow you to complete your college coursework around your responsibilities. But prospective students often overlook using their part- or full-time job earnings as an option for paying for college. Almost 80 percent of college students in 2015 worked at least part time while attending classes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By budgeting and thinking strategically about your college costs, you can likely reduce your dependence on student loans by paying a portion out of pocket. Many -- but not all -- online programs are less expensive than traditional programs and often have shorter payment periods. Six, eight or 10 weeks are common course durations. Because of the frequency of payments in an online setting, you may be well-placed to pay as you go and possibly avoid borrowing altogether. Attending college online and avoiding student loans may be challenging, but if you are willing to put in the effort, you can limit the amount you need to borrow. More from U.S. News Q&A: Understanding Student Loan Discharge Eligibility Student Loan Refinancing Isn't Right for All Borrowers
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