WASHINGTON — The Washington Nationals are a better baseball team than the New York Mets.

They have the best pitcher in the division in Max Scherzer. They have the best hitter in the division in Bryce Harper. They now have, arguably, the two best closers in the division in Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon in the back of the bullpen. But there’s a very real possibility that none of that will matter, and they will not only fail to win the National League East, but miss the 2015 postseason entirely.

Even though they’ve fallen a game behind in the standings, I don’t think this is going to happen. I believe the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds, which gave Washington a 56.1 percent chance to win the division before Monday night (both teams currently have the same number of simulated wins, despite the deficit). But after the events of the past week, the number of “ifs,” of things that could go wrong, that could derail the season, seems to have doubled.

On July 5, the Nationals’ division win probability was 85 percent. On Thursday, it was 76.8 percent.

Washington should get stronger by merit of getting lineup regulars back from the disabled list, but thus far the ones who have returned haven’t produced much. That’s why the team that looked like a juggernaut on paper, the one a majority of media outlets picked to win the World Series, may not even make the playoffs.

Flip through the slides above to see what could prevent the Nationals from even getting a chance to exorcise their playoff demons of 2012 and 2014.