Skip to main content

Playoff picks all about perspective and consensus

RALPH D. RUSSO
AP College Football Writer

GRAPEVINE, Texas (AP) — The eye test was of utmost importance to one committee member. One wasn’t trying to predict winners of hypothetical matchups. Another was doing exactly that.

There was a person who always came back to head-to-head results. One gave extra weight to the nonconference schedule. Another put more stock in conference games. I leaned heavily on metrics and gave conference champions the benefit when the teams were close.

In the end, the media members who gathered Thursday in a hotel conference room in Texas to participate in the mock selection process of the 2008 season created a top 25 and playoff matchup.

Ultimately, the teams selected weren’t important. Six years later, it’s still hard to get people to agree upon who was better, Texas or Oklahoma.

What was significant was the way we went about picking the ‘best’ teams in college football. There was plenty of debate and divergent opinions on what factors were most important — and it took a lot of consensus.

(But in case you’re wondering, we sent No. 1 Florida vs. No. 4 Southern California to the Sugar Bowl and No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Texas in a Red River Rose Bowl rematch. Penn State and Alabama didn’t make the cut.)

The real committee will start this task Oct. 27, when it meets in the same room to put together its top 25. Their final rankings will determine the first teams in the College Football Playoff in January.

Selection committee chairman Jeff Long said the actual members went through a similar trial and the conversation echoed ours, but their outcomes differed.

Our mock committee was armed with binders filled with statistical portfolios of each FBS team from the 2008, through the conference championship games. The stats are the only ones the committee can use and include a metric called relative offense (and defense and scoring) which helps adjust for competition.

For example: USC allowed its opponents to score only 28.06 percent of their season averages, by far the best in the nation. By comparison, Florida allowed its opponents to score 49.76 percent of their season average. Alabama was at 48.89 percent. Penn State was 49.76 percent. Those relative numbers became a focal point during the discussions.

One tricky thing for the media members that the real panel won’t face was we had to discount what happened in the 2008 postseason.

It would have helped to have one of those flashing light neuralyzers Tommy Lee Jones and Will Smith used in “Men in Black” to erase Utah’s thumping of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl and USC’s rout of Penn State in the Rose Bowl from our minds. But as the process went on, it became easier to focus on the teams’ resumes.

The room was filled with large screens used mostly to keep track of which teams were being discussed and to compare as many as four teams side-by-side. Laptops were used for voting. The tables were laid out in a horseshoe, and you had to speak up to be heard above side conversations.

Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated played the role of chairman and sergeant at arms, moving things along and keeping things civil. Most of the people in the room have known each other for a while, which created a comfort level that we should hope the actual committee has.

The camaraderie created a setting that allowed for spirited debate without concerns about hurt feelings. People were not shy about challenging other’s ideas.

We probably should have done this at the very start, but at an early break, we decided to go around the room and have each member talk about how they would rank teams.

That might turn into a tip for the committee — Long said he might borrow the idea.

Chuck Carlton of the Dallas Morning News mentioned putting an emphasis on quarterback play. Heather Dinich of ESPN.com liked comparative stats.

From Jerry Palm of CBS.com: “Margin of victory is important in football.” I couldn’t agree more with this and pointed out that while margin of victory in a single game can be deceiving, over the course of an entire season, it’s telling.

ESPN’s Holly Rowe would have liked to have had the opportunity to break down film. “Can this right tackle block this speed rusher?” she said.

While ESPN analyst Rod Gilmore felt tough nonconference schedules should be rewarded, Matt Hayes of the Sporting News dissented.

“It’s very hard to play well on the road in your conference,” Hayes said. “They know your personnel.”

All those different perspectives made for a winding road to consensus.

Staples said when he looked at two teams he was trying to decide which he thought would win if they played.

Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports!, thought differently: “I’m not trying to predict who will win. What did you do to get to the playoff?”

The voting procedure is nothing like the way the AP Top 25 or coaches’ poll are compiled. Teams are grouped, discussed, and then ranked. And, yes, the debate can sway opinions.

Within an hour of a five-hour meeting (the actual committee has 20 hours to put together its rankings), it was apparent that Southeastern Conference champion Florida, Big 12 champion Oklahoma and Texas, which beat Oklahoma, were in and the final spot would come down to Big Ten champion Penn State, SEC runner-up Alabama and Pac-12 champion USC.

Then, someone made the case for each team.

Stewart Mandel of Fox took USC. Forde took Alabama. Rowe took Penn State.

I thought USC was the clear No. 4, and could have made a case for the Trojans in the top three. I was sitting next to USA Today’s George Schroeder, who agreed with me about the Trojans. Next to him was Pete Fiutak of Campus Insiders.com. He also felt strongly about USC in the top four. Sitting next to like-minded committee members helped bolster my confidence in my choice.

But the process did change minds, including mine.

In part, Staple’s argument that Oklahoma had the best resume and Texas beat that team won me over. While I didn’t agree that Texas should be No. 1 and ahead of OU, like Staples, I did agree that both should be ahead of Florida.

The group as a whole disagreed and after three votes, the Gators stayed on top. And I could live with that.

___

Follow Ralph D. Russo at www.Twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP

Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Don’t Settle for Student Loans to Pay for Online Education

Online college programs are becoming a more popular choice for prospective students, with one study finding that more than 6 million students enrolled in at least one online course in fall 2015. The popularity of these courses can be attributed in part to their flexibility with working adults' schedules, students' ability to progress more quickly through online programs and, oftentimes, cheaper tuition. [See 10 low-cost online bachelor's programs for out-of-state students.]Online degrees can be beneficial to many college students, but some studies have shown online learners complete their programs at lower rates than students at traditional brick-and-mortar campuses. Individuals with student loans but no degree comprise two-thirds of defaulted borrowers. Though these numbers are not encouraging, just like for traditional programs, there are ways to reduce how much you'll need to borrow for an online program to ensure you won't become one of these statistics. Don't just settle on borrowing student loans to cover the whole cost of your program and living expenses. Instead, start thinking about how to cut costs and cover your balance in different ways, such as the following. -- Grants and scholarships: Even though you are taking an online course, you can still apply and receive grants and scholarships. But your first step should be to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly referred to as the FAFSA, which will allow you to receive a Pell Grant if your expected family contribution is low enough. The EFC criteria and award amounts are adjusted annually, but the 2017-2018 academic year awards range from $606 to $5,920, which could significantly lower the amount you borrow annually. Your next step is to apply for scholarships. You can start by checking online scholarship search engines, such as the Salt Scholarship Search, College Board's BigFuture and Peterson's. But don't forget to take advantage of local organizations and your school's financial aid office. Both may offer scholarships that you can't find with a national scholarship search. [Review these 10 sites to kick off your scholarship search.]For instance, organizations like the Elks Club, Knights of Columbus or the Rotary Club typically offer scholarships annually to local students. Just because you're going to school online doesn't mean you're ineligible. Visit your local library for scholarship listings, and ask around town. You might be surprised how many local organizations offer scholarships. While these scholarships typically aren't large, every little bit counts. Each dollar you receive in a scholarship is a dollar you don't have to borrow and pay interest on. -- Work-study: Another option for online students may be work-study awards. Not all students enrolled in online programs are eligible, but students at some schools -- including, for example, SUNY Empire State College and Liberty University -- are. Work-study awards are not given upfront like scholarships and grants. In most cases, they are an offer to earn up to the awarded amount if you secure an eligible work-study job. While there is a misconception that all work-study jobs must be on campus, students can work for off-campus, nonprofit or public employers as long as the work is in the public's interest. You may be able to work for a for-profit employer if the job is relevant to your course of study. No matter who the outside employer is, it will need to have an established agreement with your college for you to receive work-study funds. Remember, to be eligible for federal financial aid, you must be enrolled and pursuing a degree or certificate. If you're not working toward a credential, Pell Grants and work-study won't be option, but you may still be able to take advantage of private scholarships -- just be sure to read the eligibility criteria carefully. [Explore what to know about financial aid in online programs.]-- Pay as you go: One of the great benefits to enrolling online is the flexible schedule, which can allow you to complete your college coursework around your responsibilities. But prospective students often overlook using their part- or full-time job earnings as an option for paying for college. Almost 80 percent of college students in 2015 worked at least part time while attending classes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By budgeting and thinking strategically about your college costs, you can likely reduce your dependence on student loans by paying a portion out of pocket. Many -- but not all -- online programs are less expensive than traditional programs and often have shorter payment periods. Six, eight or 10 weeks are common course durations. Because of the frequency of payments in an online setting, you may be well-placed to pay as you go and possibly avoid borrowing altogether. Attending college online and avoiding student loans may be challenging, but if you are willing to put in the effort, you can limit the amount you need to borrow. More from U.S. News Q&A: Understanding Student Loan Discharge Eligibility Student Loan Refinancing Isn't Right for All Borrowers
Read Next Story