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Global tensions don’t dent enthusiasm for stocks

STEVE ROTHWELL
AP Markets Writer

A war breaks out between Israel and Hamas. An airliner is shot out of the sky in Ukraine. A Portuguese bank’s finances look shaky.

And the U.S. stock market’s response? After dipping briefly on the bad news, it climbs higher.

The market’s resilience this year — which has pushed it to a series of records and extended its five-year bull run — is driven by investors’ optimism over the growth of the U.S. economy and record corporate earnings. That helped the market overcome its latest dip, on July 17th, when a passenger jet was shot down in eastern Ukraine and Israel invaded the Gaza Strip, raising investor worries that conflicts around the world could escalate and destabilize financial markets.

As they have all year, investors responded by using it as an opportunity to buy stocks. In fact, they’ve “bought on the dip” consistently for three years, keeping the market’s slips from becoming slides. Stock pullbacks since 2011 have been rare and relatively small, and none have become severe enough to qualify as a correction, Wall Street parlance for a fall of 10 percent or more from a peak.

The lack of a correction for such a long period is unusual, because the Standard & Poor’s 500 index experiences such a decline on average every 18 months, according to S&P Capital IQ research.

Many investors say that the uninterrupted rally is justified by the outlook for stocks. Central banks worldwide have policies in place aimed at stimulating economic growth, and U.S. corporate profits continue to rise, even in the first quarter, when the economy contracted.

That has driven the S&P 500 up 7 percent this year, not including reinvested dividends. That’s on top of a 30 percent surge in 2013. The index closed Friday down 0.5 percent at 1,978.34, after closing at a record 1,987.98 a day earlier.

“The fundamental underpinnings of this bull market remain very much intact,” says Katie Nixon, chief investment officer for wealth management at Northern Trust.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has held short-term interest rates at close to zero for almost five years, and has bought $3 trillion of bonds to hold down long-term rates. The Fed has been winding down its stimulus, but a rate increase isn’t expected until at least 2015.

The European Central Bank in June introduced a raft of unusual measures meant to revive the eurozone economy by getting credit flowing to companies. Japan’s central bank is also trying to stimulate that nation’s economy.

While these policies have cut borrowing costs, they have also reduced the yields on bonds — and the income they generate for investors. As a result, investors have shifted their money to other assets, such as stocks, in the hunt for better income. That dynamic has supported the rally in stocks.

Utilities, which are regarded by some investors as a proxy for bonds because they are relatively stable and pay rich dividends, are the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 this year. Their dividend yield — which measures how much a company pays out in dividends each year compared with its stock price — stands at 3.5 percent. The yield on the 10-year government Treasury is 2.5 percent.

The stock market could suffer a sharp, but short, correction later this year once the Fed finishes withdrawing its stimulus and investors start to focus on when exactly the central bank will begin raising interest rates next year, says Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners.

“The market is going to focus more and more on when the Fed moves,” said Pavlik. “That’s the biggest chance for a correction to come at us.”

But for now, investors are focused on company profits, and the outlook remains strong. Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to climb 7.8 percent in 2014, their fifth straight year of growth, helping investors overcome concerns about the Fed and rising political tensions.

“People are looking for something to justify a significant correction,'” says Dan Morris, global investment strategist for TIAA-CREF. “Yes, volatility is going to come back, that’s obvious, but in terms of any kind of 10-plus percent correction, we just don’t see it.”

The S&P 500 index has risen almost 72 percent since the end of the last market correction in October 2011. It has closed at an all-time high 27 times since the start of the year.

Stocks have managed to rise even as the outlook for growth weakens.

The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that the global economy expanded less than it had previously forecast, slowed by weaker growth in the United States, Russia and developing economies. The lending organization predicted that global growth will be 3.4 percent in 2014, below its April forecast of 3.7 percent.

In Europe, growth is recovering but weak. During the first quarter of 2014, the eurozone grew by a paltry 0.2 percent.

Last week’s market action, a big dip followed by a quick rebound, has happened on other occasions this year.

The S&P 500 slumped 1.2 percent July 17, the biggest one day drop in more than three months, as investors worried that geopolitical tensions would escalate after a Malaysian airliner was shot down over rebel-held eastern Ukraine. But instead of marking the start of a wider decline, the market rebounded on Friday as investors focused on strong corporate earnings in the U.S.

Stocks also fell on July 10, although to a lesser degree, following worries about the soundness of Espirito Santo International, a holding company that is the largest shareholder in a group of firms, including the parent of Portugal’s largest bank, Banco Espirito Santo. The specter of a European debt crises prompted investors to push down the stock market 0.4 percent and snap up less risky assets like gold and governments bonds.

And in June, after a breakaway al-Qaida group seized large swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria, threatening to destabilize the entire region, stocks managed a 1.9 gain for the month.

In April, stocks plunged as investors dumped biotech and Internet stocks. The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index slumped to its worst day since 2011 and dragged down other major indexes. Between April 3 and April 11 the S&P 500 dropped 4 percent, but by the middle of May the stock market had recovered and was trading at record levels again.

The biggest one-day drop of 2014 was on Feb. 3. The index slumped 2.3 percent, falling to its lowest level of the year, as investors worried about the outlook for global growth and the impact of an unusually harsh winter on the U.S. economy. Since then the S&P 500 has gained 5.2 percent.

While those drops were significant, they pale next to the losses experienced during a correction.

During the last such slide, which ran from April to October 2011, the S&P 500 declined more than 19 percent on concerns about the fallout from Europe’s debt crisis and impact of the U.S. government’s credit rating being lowered.

Northern Trust’s Nixon says that it’s only natural that the longer the market goes without a correction, the more investors will worry that a sell-off is imminent and avoid buying stocks.

In fact, the bigger risk to investors, Nixon says, is that they don’t buy stocks and miss out on the market’s gains at a time when holding cash offers a return close to zero.

“A correction is a natural and normal part of the market cycle and it shouldn’t be feared,” says Nixon. “Waiting for a correction is an expensive game right now.”

Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Don’t Settle for Student Loans to Pay for Online Education

Online college programs are becoming a more popular choice for prospective students, with one study finding that more than 6 million students enrolled in at least one online course in fall 2015. The popularity of these courses can be attributed in part to their flexibility with working adults' schedules, students' ability to progress more quickly through online programs and, oftentimes, cheaper tuition. [See 10 low-cost online bachelor's programs for out-of-state students.]Online degrees can be beneficial to many college students, but some studies have shown online learners complete their programs at lower rates than students at traditional brick-and-mortar campuses. Individuals with student loans but no degree comprise two-thirds of defaulted borrowers. Though these numbers are not encouraging, just like for traditional programs, there are ways to reduce how much you'll need to borrow for an online program to ensure you won't become one of these statistics. Don't just settle on borrowing student loans to cover the whole cost of your program and living expenses. Instead, start thinking about how to cut costs and cover your balance in different ways, such as the following. -- Grants and scholarships: Even though you are taking an online course, you can still apply and receive grants and scholarships. But your first step should be to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly referred to as the FAFSA, which will allow you to receive a Pell Grant if your expected family contribution is low enough. The EFC criteria and award amounts are adjusted annually, but the 2017-2018 academic year awards range from $606 to $5,920, which could significantly lower the amount you borrow annually. Your next step is to apply for scholarships. You can start by checking online scholarship search engines, such as the Salt Scholarship Search, College Board's BigFuture and Peterson's. But don't forget to take advantage of local organizations and your school's financial aid office. Both may offer scholarships that you can't find with a national scholarship search. [Review these 10 sites to kick off your scholarship search.]For instance, organizations like the Elks Club, Knights of Columbus or the Rotary Club typically offer scholarships annually to local students. Just because you're going to school online doesn't mean you're ineligible. Visit your local library for scholarship listings, and ask around town. You might be surprised how many local organizations offer scholarships. While these scholarships typically aren't large, every little bit counts. Each dollar you receive in a scholarship is a dollar you don't have to borrow and pay interest on. -- Work-study: Another option for online students may be work-study awards. Not all students enrolled in online programs are eligible, but students at some schools -- including, for example, SUNY Empire State College and Liberty University -- are. Work-study awards are not given upfront like scholarships and grants. In most cases, they are an offer to earn up to the awarded amount if you secure an eligible work-study job. While there is a misconception that all work-study jobs must be on campus, students can work for off-campus, nonprofit or public employers as long as the work is in the public's interest. You may be able to work for a for-profit employer if the job is relevant to your course of study. No matter who the outside employer is, it will need to have an established agreement with your college for you to receive work-study funds. Remember, to be eligible for federal financial aid, you must be enrolled and pursuing a degree or certificate. If you're not working toward a credential, Pell Grants and work-study won't be option, but you may still be able to take advantage of private scholarships -- just be sure to read the eligibility criteria carefully. [Explore what to know about financial aid in online programs.]-- Pay as you go: One of the great benefits to enrolling online is the flexible schedule, which can allow you to complete your college coursework around your responsibilities. But prospective students often overlook using their part- or full-time job earnings as an option for paying for college. Almost 80 percent of college students in 2015 worked at least part time while attending classes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By budgeting and thinking strategically about your college costs, you can likely reduce your dependence on student loans by paying a portion out of pocket. Many -- but not all -- online programs are less expensive than traditional programs and often have shorter payment periods. Six, eight or 10 weeks are common course durations. Because of the frequency of payments in an online setting, you may be well-placed to pay as you go and possibly avoid borrowing altogether. Attending college online and avoiding student loans may be challenging, but if you are willing to put in the effort, you can limit the amount you need to borrow. More from U.S. News Q&A: Understanding Student Loan Discharge Eligibility Student Loan Refinancing Isn't Right for All Borrowers
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