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IMF cuts US and global growth forecasts for 2014

The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — The International Monetary Fund foresees the global economy expanding less than it had previously forecast, slowed by weaker growth in the United States, Russia and developing economies.

The lending organization predicted Thursday that global growth will be 3.4 percent in 2014, below its April forecast of 3.7 percent. But the fund still expects the growth of the world’s economy to accelerate a bit to 4 percent in 2015.

The downgrade of this year’s estimate for the global economy reflects much slower growth in the United States. The IMF now expects just 1.7 percent U.S. growth in 2014, which would be the weakest since the recession officially ended five years ago. That’s down from its April prediction of 2.8 percent, mostly because of a sharp weather-related contraction in the first quarter. The U.S. economy shrank at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the first three months of the year.

But the IMF thinks the U.S. economy rebounded in the April-June quarter at a healthy 3.5 percent annual rate. Growth should remain above 3 percent in the second half of the year, it said in a separate report Wednesday. And it should be 3 percent for all of 2015.

Olivier Blanchard, the IMF’s chief economist, said the U.S. economy’s recent weakness is in “the past, to a large extent.”

“Looking forward, growth in the U.S. is reasonably strong,” Blanchard added.

The IMF also slashed its outlook for Russia’s growth to just 0.2 percent this year and 1 percent in 2015. Russia’s conflict with Ukraine has caused a sharp drop in foreign investment.

The IMF included its forecasts in a quarterly update to its World Economic Outlook report.

The weaker growth estimates underscore the need for central banks in advanced economies in the United States and Europe to keep interest rates low, the report said. The Federal Reserve has pegged the short-term rate it controls at nearly zero for more than five years. But most economists expect the Fed to start slowly raising that rate in mid-2015.

The European Central Bank has cut its benchmark rate to 0.15 percent, a record low. It’s also placed a negative rate on the deposits it holds for commercial banks to try to get them to lend more.

The IMF also stressed that much of the downgraded forecast reflects temporary factors, such as harsh winter weather and a slowdown in inventory restocking in the United States. .

In China, consumer spending has declined as the government has sought to reduce lending, the IMF said. Growth in China will likely be 7.4 percent this year, down from the IMF’s 7.6 percent forecast in April. It will slip further, to 7.1 percent, in 2015.

But Beijing has taken steps to support growth, such as spending more on roads and other infrastructure and cutting taxes for small businesses, the IMF said. That should bolster the Chinese economy in the second half of this year.

In Brazil, higher rates have throttled business and consumer spending, the IMF said. Brazil’s central bank has raised rates to try to combat inflation. The economy will expand just 1.3 percent this year, the IMF estimates, down from its previous estimate of 1.9 percent. The IMF also marked down its forecast for Brazil’s economy in 2015 to 2 percent, from 2.6 percent.

Mexico’s economy has been held back by weakness in the United States and slower construction, the IMF said. It foresees growth of just 2.4 percent this year, down from its April estimate of 3 percent. But it should rebound in 2015, the IMF expects.

Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Don’t Settle for Student Loans to Pay for Online Education

Online college programs are becoming a more popular choice for prospective students, with one study finding that more than 6 million students enrolled in at least one online course in fall 2015. The popularity of these courses can be attributed in part to their flexibility with working adults' schedules, students' ability to progress more quickly through online programs and, oftentimes, cheaper tuition. [See 10 low-cost online bachelor's programs for out-of-state students.]Online degrees can be beneficial to many college students, but some studies have shown online learners complete their programs at lower rates than students at traditional brick-and-mortar campuses. Individuals with student loans but no degree comprise two-thirds of defaulted borrowers. Though these numbers are not encouraging, just like for traditional programs, there are ways to reduce how much you'll need to borrow for an online program to ensure you won't become one of these statistics. Don't just settle on borrowing student loans to cover the whole cost of your program and living expenses. Instead, start thinking about how to cut costs and cover your balance in different ways, such as the following. -- Grants and scholarships: Even though you are taking an online course, you can still apply and receive grants and scholarships. But your first step should be to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly referred to as the FAFSA, which will allow you to receive a Pell Grant if your expected family contribution is low enough. The EFC criteria and award amounts are adjusted annually, but the 2017-2018 academic year awards range from $606 to $5,920, which could significantly lower the amount you borrow annually. Your next step is to apply for scholarships. You can start by checking online scholarship search engines, such as the Salt Scholarship Search, College Board's BigFuture and Peterson's. But don't forget to take advantage of local organizations and your school's financial aid office. Both may offer scholarships that you can't find with a national scholarship search. [Review these 10 sites to kick off your scholarship search.]For instance, organizations like the Elks Club, Knights of Columbus or the Rotary Club typically offer scholarships annually to local students. Just because you're going to school online doesn't mean you're ineligible. Visit your local library for scholarship listings, and ask around town. You might be surprised how many local organizations offer scholarships. While these scholarships typically aren't large, every little bit counts. Each dollar you receive in a scholarship is a dollar you don't have to borrow and pay interest on. -- Work-study: Another option for online students may be work-study awards. Not all students enrolled in online programs are eligible, but students at some schools -- including, for example, SUNY Empire State College and Liberty University -- are. Work-study awards are not given upfront like scholarships and grants. In most cases, they are an offer to earn up to the awarded amount if you secure an eligible work-study job. While there is a misconception that all work-study jobs must be on campus, students can work for off-campus, nonprofit or public employers as long as the work is in the public's interest. You may be able to work for a for-profit employer if the job is relevant to your course of study. No matter who the outside employer is, it will need to have an established agreement with your college for you to receive work-study funds. Remember, to be eligible for federal financial aid, you must be enrolled and pursuing a degree or certificate. If you're not working toward a credential, Pell Grants and work-study won't be option, but you may still be able to take advantage of private scholarships -- just be sure to read the eligibility criteria carefully. [Explore what to know about financial aid in online programs.]-- Pay as you go: One of the great benefits to enrolling online is the flexible schedule, which can allow you to complete your college coursework around your responsibilities. But prospective students often overlook using their part- or full-time job earnings as an option for paying for college. Almost 80 percent of college students in 2015 worked at least part time while attending classes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By budgeting and thinking strategically about your college costs, you can likely reduce your dependence on student loans by paying a portion out of pocket. Many -- but not all -- online programs are less expensive than traditional programs and often have shorter payment periods. Six, eight or 10 weeks are common course durations. Because of the frequency of payments in an online setting, you may be well-placed to pay as you go and possibly avoid borrowing altogether. Attending college online and avoiding student loans may be challenging, but if you are willing to put in the effort, you can limit the amount you need to borrow. More from U.S. News Q&A: Understanding Student Loan Discharge Eligibility Student Loan Refinancing Isn't Right for All Borrowers
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